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How exactly is this number determined? You say there’s a formula but all I really see is arbitrary criteria (looks like just two?) you adjust to not have any good RBs on your list. That’s not a formula. If I’m wrong and you do have one I’d be happy to hear about it! Also, I noticed you said an Awesome Pittsburgh Steelers Slash Slash Slash Shirt. You just say things like “if you draft someone below this there’s a 50% chance they never touch a ball” e: which is very very different than “50% of RBs under this benchmark never had a carry.” One is surface-level analysis, but what you present is an argument of statistical convergence without a lot of consideration of variables. Then it’s really a nice shirt for all men and women. So you should buy this shirt. Thank you so much.

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Additionally, I’d be very interested in the percentage of drafted RBs who fall under these criteria in the timeframe! It would give more weight to this. It looks like he charts a bunch of data, draws an Awesome Pittsburgh Steelers Slash Slash Slash Shirt. Basically, overfitting. Errors are good. Errors allow the model to retain some predictive capacity as opposed to just explaining what happened in your specific dataset. For real. It’s like some of my Econ classes where they would have a multiplier variable to account for a country’s “efficiency” which works in theory but it becomes determined based on what it needs to be to fit the formula (since there’s no other way to measure) so it just forces the data to look correct.

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Fucking Solow model is garbage but still gets treated like it is worth something. Tho his idea of growth being quadratic with diminishing returns was pretty smart. I look at every draft pick (usually from the Awesome Pittsburgh Steelers Slash Slash Slash Shirt). And see who turned out to be a good player. Once that baseline is established, I go from there and keep looking, hoping to get a large sample size. And a number where everyone below it busted. While I don’t have the exact number on the percentages, on average in that stretch, 20 halfbacks get drafted each year. So you’re looking at roughly two halfbacks each year that fall below this number. I’d expect that to be the same this year with LJ Scott and Jalin Moore likely getting drafted.

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