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At this point – excepting the development of a vaccine – we are unlikely to greatly impact the overall infection rate. Most people will get it and Pretty I Love Social Distancing Shirt. However, the point of flattening the curve is to slow it down. It protects the healthcare systems’ ability to respond (lowering the death rate for the critical care patients infected). And it gives time for a greater percentage of the population to recover. As that happens we effectively achieve herd immunity. Same concept as to why vaccines work for society at large even though they only work individually 95% of the time.

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This virus is relatively slow to mutate, despite belonging to a class of viruses. Which higher mutation rates are favor (positive-sense RNA viruses). This is in part due to the fact that the virus has error-correcting “machinery”. This increases the number of missteps needed before a mutation is passed on, and possibly also for other reasons we aren’t aware of. Very little variation from our earliest known index cases with data available, around Nov 2019, has been observed. Additionally, the virus has some evolutionarily unusual sequences that are highly conserved, involving the method. Because it infects cells – this method of infection appears to both be critical for the virus’s viability and lethality and the most likely target of novel therapies.

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So as of right now, the overall picture in terms of mutation is favorable. The virus will certainly mutate, but there is reason to be hopeful that it will not do so rapidly, and that when it does, it is unlikely to affect any novel therapies. If you run the simulations, you can see that sometimes the simulation ends before everyone infects and the rate of infection is approaching zero. With the last one, I’m getting 108 or 106 people never even getting infect. With the free for all, everyone got it.

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